A raw pipeline overstates what will close. Weighted pipeline multiplies each deal’s value by its probability and sums — a realistic forecast. SUMPRODUCT does it in one formula.
The example
Deals at 90%, 50%, 20%.
| A | B | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deal · Prob | Weighted |
| 2 | $50k · 90% | $45k |
| 3 | Total | → $76,000 |
The formula
The formula:
How it works
How it works:
- Assign each open deal a win probability (often tied to its stage).
SUMPRODUCT(value, probability)multiplies each pair and sums — the expected value.- This forecast is far more realistic than summing raw pipeline.
- Map stages to probabilities with a lookup so probabilities update as deals advance.
Stage-based probabilities keep it honest. Rather than guessing each deal, map stages to historical close rates (Discovery 10%, Proposal 40%, Negotiation 75%) via a lookup, then SUMPRODUCT value × that probability. The forecast updates automatically as deals move stages — and reflects what actually closes, not optimism.
Try it: interactive demo
Values and probabilities (comma-separated).
Variations
Probability from stage
Lookup the rate:
Raw pipeline
Unweighted total:
One deal weighted
Expected value:
Pitfalls & errors
Probabilities as decimals. 90% must be 0.90 in SUMPRODUCT (or divide by 100).
Weighted < raw. The forecast is below raw pipeline by design.
Calibrate probabilities. Use historical close rates by stage, not optimism.
Practice workbook
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate weighted pipeline in Excel?
Where do win probabilities come from?
Why is weighted pipeline lower than raw pipeline?
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