Three months in, what will the full year look like? A run-rate projects year-to-date results to a full year — a quick pace check, as long as you remember it assumes the rest of the year matches.
The example
$120,000 in the first 4 months.
| A | B | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Item | Value |
| 2 | YTD (4 mo) | $120,000 |
| 3 | Projected year | $360,000 |
The formula
Project the full year:
How it works
Scale the pace to a full year:
- Divide the YTD figure by months elapsed for the average monthly run-rate.
- Multiply by 12 to annualize.
- For day-level precision, use
YTD / daysElapsed * 365. - It’s a straight-line projection — accurate only if the remaining months resemble those so far.
Beware seasonality. A run-rate from a strong Q4 will overstate the year; from a slow January, understate it. For seasonal businesses, project remaining months from last year’s pattern instead of a flat run-rate.
Try it: interactive demo
Set YTD total and months elapsed.
Variations
By days
Finer projection:
Remaining to target
Gap to plan:
Required monthly pace
To still hit target:
Pitfalls & errors
Assumes a flat pace. Run-rate ignores seasonality and one-off spikes. Treat it as a rough pace check.
Zero months elapsed. Guard the denominator at the start of the year.
Partial months. Mixing a partial current month into “months elapsed” skews the rate — use the day-based version mid-month.
Practice workbook
Frequently asked questions
How do I annualize a year-to-date number in Excel?
What pace do I need to hit my annual target?
Is a run-rate accurate?
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