Most cars buy the base wash; some add a wax or tire shine. Weight the upsell by how often it sells and you get the true average ticket per car.
A $15 wash, with 40% of drivers adding a $10 upgrade, averages $19 per car — the number that drives daily revenue forecasts.
The example
Three wash packages, each with a base price, an upsell take rate, and an upsell price.
| A | B | C | D | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Package | Base | Take % | Upsell | Avg ticket |
| 2 | Basic+ | $15 | 40% | $10 | $19.00 |
| 3 | Deluxe | $22 | 55% | $12 | $28.60 |
| 4 | Express | $10 | 25% | $8 | $12.00 |
The formula
The take rate turns the upsell into an expected value:
How it works
You are blending two outcomes into one average:
B2is what every car pays for the base wash.C2*D2is the upsell price scaled by the fraction of customers who buy it — its expected value per car.- Adding them gives the average ticket across all cars, buyers and non-buyers alike.
Multiply the average ticket by car count to forecast a day's wash revenue.
Try it: interactive demo
Enter the base price, upsell take rate, and upsell price.
Variations
Two upsells
Add a second weighted upsell for shops that sell two add-ons.
Pitfalls & errors
Enter the take rate as a percentage (40%) or a decimal (0.40) — typing 40 overstates the ticket wildly.
Measure the take rate from real receipts, not a guess; a 10-point swing changes the average ticket noticeably.
Practice workbook
Frequently asked questions
Where do I get the take rate?
Can I forecast daily revenue with this?
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