Nursery: Seeds To Sow For A Target Number Of Finished Plants

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A landscaper orders 500 tomato plants. If you sow 500 seeds you will deliver about 380: some seed will not germinate, and some seedlings will not survive pricking out and hardening off. Divide the target by both rates and round up, and you sow enough to fill the order with a few to spare.


Quick formula: Target plants divided by germination rate and by survival rate, rounded up:
=ROUNDUP(B2/(C2*D2),0)

500 plants at 85% germination and 90% survival: 500 ÷ 0.765 = 653.6, so sow 654 seeds.

Functions used (tap for the full reference guide):

The example

Three crops on the sowing sheet. The pepper seed germinates poorly and loses more at transplant, so it needs far more seed per finished plant.

ABCDE
1CropTarget plantsGerm %Survival %Seeds to sow
2Tomato Celebrity50085%90%654
3Marigold1,20092%95%1,373
4Habanero pepper25070%85%421

The formula

One formula, filled down the sowing list:

=ROUNDUP(B2/(C2*D2),0) // target over combined yield, rounded up to whole seeds

How it works

Two loss stages multiply, so you divide by both:

  1. C2*D2 is the share of seeds that become sellable plants: 85% germination times 90% survival is 76.5%.
  2. B2/(C2*D2) scales the target up: 500 ÷ 0.765 is 653.6 seeds.
  3. ROUNDUP(...,0) rounds up to a whole seed. 653.6 becomes 654 — you cannot sow six tenths of a seed, and rounding down would leave you one plant short.
  4. Compare crops. The habanero needs 1.68 seeds per finished plant; the marigold needs 1.14.

Most growers add a safety margin on top: ROUNDUP(B2/(C2*D2)*1.05,0) for 5% over. Being ten plants short on a 500-plant order costs more than ten extra seeds.

Try it: interactive demo

Interactive

Enter the plants you need, the germination percent from the seed packet or your own trials, and your transplant survival percent.

Variations

Packets or plug trays to order

Divide the seed count by seeds per packet (or cells per tray) and round up again.

=ROUNDUP(E2/SeedsPerPacket,0)

Plants you will finish from seed on hand

The reverse question. Multiply seeds by both rates and round down.

=ROUNDDOWN(SeedsOnHand*C2*D2,0)

Pitfalls & errors

The germination rate on the packet was tested under lab conditions on fresh seed. Old seed or a cold greenhouse can cut it by 10–20 points. Use your own trial from last season where you have one.

Track survival separately for direct-sown plugs versus pricked-out seedlings. Pricking out costs more plants, and blending the two rates hides which method is losing them.

Entering the rates as 85 and 90 instead of 85% and 90% divides by 7,650 and tells you to sow 1 seed. Percent cells, or decimals like 0.85, only.

Practice workbook

📊
Download the free Nursery: Seeds To Sow For A Target Number Of Finished Plants practice workbook
Edit the yellow target, germination and survival cells; the seed count recalculates.

Frequently asked questions

Should survival include plants culled for quality?
Yes, if you cull before sale. Survival here means the share of germinated seedlings that end up as plants you can invoice, so anything you throw out for being leggy or off-type counts as a loss.
Is there a simpler rule of thumb?
Many growers just sow 25–30% over. That is fine for easy crops with 90%+ germination, but it badly under-sows a 70% germinator with transplant losses. The two-rate formula costs nothing extra and gets both cases right.

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Related formulas: Nursery: Potting Mix Bags For A Pot Run · Seeding Rate: Seed Needed · Tree Farm: Seedlings For Survival

Function references: ROUNDUPPRODUCT